France v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
42 – 31
1 April 2000Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Italy
- Kick-off
- 12:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 6.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.4 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 16 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Christian Califano-10.0
- 2Marc dal Maso
- 3Franck Tournaire
- 4Olivier Brouzet
- 5Fabien Pelous(c)+1.3
- 6Lionel Mallier
- 7Olivier Magne+10.5
- 8Thomas Lievremont-3.7
- 9Aubin Hueber
- 10Alain Penaud
- 11David Bory
- 12Emile Ntamack
- 13Richard Dourthe
- 14Philippe Bernat-Salles
- 15Thomas Castaignede-2.7
Replacements
- 16David Venditti
- 17Raphael Ibanez-4.5
- 18Abdelatif Benazzi
- 19Hugues Miorin
- 20Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 21Cedric Heymans-0.6
- 22Christophe Laussucq
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Alessandro Moscardi
- 3Tino Paoletti
- 4Carlo Checchinato
- 5Andrea Gritti
- 6Walter Cristofoletto
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Andrea de Rossi+3.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon(c)-7.4
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 12Nicolas Zisti
- 13Luca Martin
- 14Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 15Matt Pini
Replacements
- 16Carlo Orlandi
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Wim Visser
- 19Matteo Mazzantini
- 20Aaron Persico
- 21Denis Dallan-0.8
- 22Andrea Scanavacca
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.