Scotland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 19
17 March 2001Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 2.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.4 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 6 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Mattie Stewart
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Martin Leslie
- 7Budge Pountney(c)
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Bryan Redpath
- 10Duncan Hodge
- 11Kenny Logan
- 12John Leslie-1.3
- 13Gregor Townsend
- 14James Craig
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Gordon McIlwham
- 17Cammie Murray
- 18Jon Petrie
- 19Steve Scott
- 20Richard Metcalfe
- 21Andy Nicol
- 22Glenn Metcalfe
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Alessandro Moscardi(c)
- 3Franco Properzi-Curti
- 4Wim Visser
- 5Andrea Gritti
- 6Aaron Persico
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Carlo Checchinato
- 9Filippo Frati
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Luca Martin
- 12Manuel Dallan
- 13Walter Pozzebon
- 14Massimiliano Perziano
- 15Cristian Stoica+7.0
Replacements
- 16Matteo Mazzantini
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Nanni Raineri
- 19Carlo Caione
- 20Giampiero de Carli
- 21Andrea Benatti
- 22Andrea Scanavacca
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.