South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 15
28 July 2001Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 1354 m
- Temperature
- 11.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 11 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Robbie Kempson
- 2Lukas van Biljon
- 3Cobus Visagie
- 4Johan Ackermann
- 5Mark Andrews
- 6Andre Vos
- 7Andre Venter
- 8Bobby Skinstad(c)+2.3
- 9Joost van der Westhuizen
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Dean Hall
- 12Braam van Straaten
- 13Robbie Fleck
- 14Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 15Conrad Jantjes
Replacements
- 16Corne Krige-5.2
- 17Ollie le Roux
- 18Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 19John Smit+6.0
- 20Neil de Kock
- 21Deon Kayser
- 22Thinus Delport
Australia
- 1Nick Stiles
- 2Michael Foley
- 3Rod Moore
- 4David Giffin+0.8
- 5John Eales(c)
- 6Owen Finegan
- 7George Smith
- 8Toutai Kefu
- 9George Gregan
- 10Elton Flatley
- 11Joe Roff-6.5
- 12Nathan Grey+10.3
- 13Dan Herbert
- 14Andrew Walker
- 15Matt Burke
Replacements
- 16Matt Cockbain
- 17Ben Darwin
- 18Manny Edmonds
- 19David Lyons-0.2
- 20Chris Latham+0.2
- 21Brendan Cannon
- 22Chris Whitaker
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.