Italy v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 29
16 February 2002Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 10.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.3 mm
- Wind
- 7 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 13 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Giampiero de Carli
- 2Alessandro Moscardi(c)
- 3Federico Pucciariello
- 4Carlo Checchinato
- 5Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 6Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Matt Phillips
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 13Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 14Roberto Pedrazzi
- 15Paolo Vaccari
Replacements
- 16Alejandro Moreno
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Mark Giacheri
- 19Luca Martin
- 20Aaron Persico
- 21Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 22Juan Manuel Queirolo
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Mattie Stewart
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Jason White+12.3
- 7Andrew Mower
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Bryan Redpath(c)
- 10Gregor Townsend
- 11Chris Paterson+1.8
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13James McLaren
- 14Glenn Metcalfe
- 15Brendan Laney
Replacements
- 16George Graham
- 17Martin Leslie
- 18Robbie Russell+3.0
- 19Jon Petrie
- 20Graeme Beveridge
- 21Duncan Hodge
- 22Kenny Logan
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.