Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
38 – 27
27 July 2002Wooloongabba, Brisbane
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 09:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 14.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 3Patricio Noriega
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Justin Harrison
- 6Owen Finegan
- 7George Smith
- 8Toutai Kefu
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 12Dan Herbert
- 13Matt Burke
- 14Ben Tune-0.3
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
South Africa
- 1Lawrence Sephaka
- 2James Dalton
- 3Faan Rautenbach
- 4Jannes Labuschagne
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Corne Krige(c)-5.2
- 7Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 8Bobby Skinstad+2.3
- 9Bolla Conradie
- 10Andre Pretorius-0.7
- 11Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 12De Wet Barry+0.2
- 13Marius Joubert
- 14Stefan Terblanche-3.6
- 15Werner Greeff
Replacements
- 16Delarey du Preez
- 17Ollie le Roux
- 18AJ Venter
- 19Hendro Scholtz
- 20Neil de Kock
- 21Adrian Jacobs-2.7
- 22Brent Russell
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.