South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 31
17 August 2002Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 13:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 12.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.2 mm
- Wind
- 28 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Lawrence Sephaka
- 2James Dalton
- 3Willie Meyer
- 4Jannes Labuschagne
- 5AJ Venter
- 6Corne Krige(c)-5.2
- 7Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 8Bobby Skinstad+2.3
- 9Neil de Kock
- 10Brent Russell
- 11Dean Hall
- 12De Wet Barry+0.2
- 13Marius Joubert
- 14Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 15Werner Greeff
Replacements
- 16Ollie le Roux
- 17Faan Rautenbach
- 18Victor Matfield-1.4
- 19Hendro Scholtz
- 20Bolla Conradie
- 21Adrian Jacobs-2.7
- 22Stefan Terblanche-3.6
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 3Ben Darwin
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Justin Harrison
- 6Owen Finegan
- 7George Smith
- 8Toutai Kefu
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 12Dan Herbert
- 13Matt Burke
- 14Ben Tune-0.3
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
- 16Brendan Cannon
- 17Rod Moore
- 18Matt Cockbain
- 19David Lyons-0.2
- 20Chris Whitaker
- 21Elton Flatley
- 22Mat Rogers
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.