Italy v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 53
23 March 2003Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v France
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 8.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 3Ramiro Martinez Frugoni
- 4Cristian Bezzi
- 5Mark Giacheri
- 6Andrea de Rossi+3.9
- 7Aaron Persico
- 8Matt Phillips
- 9Alessandro Troncon(c)-7.4
- 10Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Nanni Raineri
- 13Paolo Vaccari
- 14Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 15Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
Replacements
- 16Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 17Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 18Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 19Scott Palmer
- 20Matteo Mazzantini
- 21Gert Peens
- 22Andrea Masi-5.0
France
- 1Jean-Jacques Crenca
- 2Raphael Ibanez-4.5
- 3Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 4Fabien Pelous(c)+1.3
- 5Olivier Brouzet
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Olivier Magne+10.5
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Xavier Garbajosa-2.6
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13Thomas Castaignede-2.7
- 14Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Jean-Baptiste Rue
- 17Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 18David Auradou-6.7
- 19Patrick Tabacco
- 20Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 21Gerald Merceron
- 22Vincent Clerc+1.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 7 |
| 2 | Conversions | 6 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.