Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 9
2 August 2003Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 09:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 13.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Brendan Cannon
- 3Patricio Noriega
- 4David Giffin+0.8
- 5Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 6George Smith
- 7Phil Waugh
- 8Toutai Kefu
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Elton Flatley
- 13Mat Rogers
- 14Wendell Sailor
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
- 16Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 17Glen Panoho
- 18Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 19Owen Finegan
- 20Chris Whitaker
- 21Matt Giteau+3.8
- 22Matt Burke
South Africa
- 1Robbie Kempson
- 2Danie Coetzee
- 3Richard Bands
- 4Selborne Boome
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Corne Krige(c)-5.2
- 7Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 8Juan Smith+0.6
- 9Craig Davidson
- 10Louis Koen
- 11Ashwin Willemse
- 12De Wet Barry+0.2
- 13Jorrie Muller
- 14Stefan Terblanche-3.6
- 15Andre Pretorius-0.7
Replacements
- 16Dale Santon
- 17Lawrence Sephaka
- 18Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 19Wikus van Heerden
- 20Joost van der Westhuizen
- 21Gcobani Bobo
- 22Brent Russell
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.