Australia v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 16
8 November 2003Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
What the model says about Australia v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 19.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.9 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 45 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Brendan Cannon
- 3Ben Darwin
- 4Justin Harrison
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6George Smith
- 7Phil Waugh
- 8David Lyons-0.2
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Elton Flatley
- 13Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 14Wendell Sailor
- 15Mat Rogers
Replacements
- 0Steve R. Walsh
- 16Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 17Al Baxter
- 18Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 19Matt Cockbain
- 20Chris Whitaker
- 21Matt Giteau+3.8
- 22Joe Roff-6.5
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Bruce Douglas
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Jason White+12.3
- 7Cameron Mather
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Bryan Redpath(c)
- 10Chris Paterson+1.8
- 11Kenny Logan
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13Gregor Townsend
- 14Simon Danielli+0.1
- 15Glenn Metcalfe
Replacements
- 16Robbie Russell+3.0
- 17Gordon McIlwham
- 18Scott Murray
- 19Jon Petrie
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21James McLaren
- 22Ben Hinshelwood
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 75.0% | Possession | 25.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 555m | Carry metres | 211m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 43 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| 7 | Offloads | 12 |
| 161 | Passes | 120 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 111 | Tackles made | 121 |
| 92.0% | Tackle success | 74.0% |
| 10 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 43 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 66.7% | Lineout success | 92.6% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 25 |
| 12 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | Rucks won | 70 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 11 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 686m | Kick metres | 688m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 16 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 13 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.