France v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
25 – 0
21 February 2004Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Italy
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 3.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Fabien Pelous(c)+1.3
- 5Pascal Pape+1.7
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Olivier Magne+10.5
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 10Julien Peyrelongue
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Nicolas Brusque+1.9
Replacements
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Andrea de Rossi(c)+3.9
- 7Aaron Persico
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Paul Griffen
- 10Rima Wakarua-Noema
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Matteo Barbini
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 14Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 15Roland de Marigny
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Carlo Checchinato
- 19Silvio Orlando
- 20Simon Picone+3.8
- 21Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 22Manuel Dallan
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.