England v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
42 – 20
3 February 2007Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 3.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Perry Freshwater
- 2George Chuter
- 3Phil Vickery(c)+2.7
- 4Louis Deacon-1.1
- 5Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Magnus Lund
- 8Martin Corry-6.2
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Jason Robinson+5.5
- 12Andy Farrell
- 13Mike Tindall+3.5
- 14Josh Lewsey
- 15Olly Morgan
Replacements
- 16Lee Mears+2.3
- 17Julian White-1.4
- 18Tom Palmer+2.1
- 19Tom Rees
- 20Peter Richards
- 21Toby Flood-1.2
- 22Mathew Tait+7.9
Scotland
- 1Gavin Kerr
- 2Dougie Hall-1.1
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 5Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 6Simon Taylor
- 7Kelly Brown+3.1
- 8David Callam
- 9Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Chris Paterson(c)+1.8
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13Marcus di Rollo
- 14Sean Lamont+5.6
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Ross Ford
- 17Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 18Scott Murray
- 19Ally Hogg
- 20Rory Lawson-3.0
- 21Rob Dewey
- 22Rory Lamont+0.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.