England v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 7
10 February 2007Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Italy
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 7.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.4 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Perry Freshwater
- 2George Chuter
- 3Phil Vickery(c)+2.7
- 4Louis Deacon-1.1
- 5Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 6Nick Easter+2.6
- 7Magnus Lund
- 8Martin Corry-6.2
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Jason Robinson+5.5
- 12Andy Farrell
- 13Mike Tindall+3.5
- 14Josh Lewsey
- 15Iain Balshaw+8.5
Replacements
- 16Lee Mears+2.3
- 17Julian White-1.4
- 18Tom Palmer+2.1
- 19Tom Rees
- 20Shaun Perry
- 21Toby Flood-1.2
- 22Mathew Tait+7.9
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Maurizio Zaffiri
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Andrea Scanavacca
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Kaine Robertson-1.3
- 15Roland de Marigny
Replacements
- 16Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 19Roberto Mandelli
- 20Paul Griffen
- 21Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 22Matteo Pratichetti
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.