England v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 18
11 March 2007Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 8.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Tim Payne
- 2George Chuter
- 3Julian White-1.4
- 4Martin Corry-6.2
- 5Tom Palmer+2.1
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Tom Rees
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Toby Flood-1.2
- 11Jason Robinson+5.5
- 12Mike Catt(c)+2.3
- 13Mike Tindall+3.5
- 14David Strettle
- 15Josh Lewsey
Replacements
- 16Lee Mears+2.3
- 17Stuart Turner
- 18Louis Deacon-1.1
- 19Magnus Lund
- 20Shaun Perry
- 21Shane Geraghty
- 22Mathew Tait+7.9
France
- 1Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 2Raphael Ibanez(c)-4.5
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10David Skrela
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13David Marty+6.7
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Sebastien Bruno
- 17Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 18Pascal Pape+1.7
- 19Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 20Pierre Mignoni-1.1
- 21Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 22Cedric Heymans-0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 6 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.