Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
25 – 17
7 July 2007Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 10.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Matt Dunning+1.3
- 2Adam Freier
- 3Guy Shepherdson
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7George Smith
- 8Stephen Hoiles
- 9George Gregan
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Mark Gerrard
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Stirling Mortlock(c)+4.4
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Julian Huxley
Replacements
- 16Sean Hardman
- 17Al Baxter
- 18Hugh McMeniman
- 19David Lyons-0.2
- 20Phil Waugh
- 21Scott Staniforth
- 22Drew Mitchell+1.7
South Africa
- 1CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 2Gary Botha
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Johan Ackermann
- 5Johann Muller+4.2
- 6Wikus van Heerden
- 7Pedrie Wannenburg
- 8Bobby Skinstad(c)+2.3
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Derick Hougaard
- 11JP Pietersen+0.8
- 12Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 13Waylon Murray
- 14Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 15Bevin Fortuin
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17Eddie Andrews
- 18Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 19Jacques Cronje
- 20Michael Claassens
- 21Peter Grant
- 22Jaco Pretorius
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.