France v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 34
19 October 2007Parc des Princes, Paris
What the model says about France v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 32 m
- Temperature
- 9.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 23 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 2Raphael Ibanez(c)-4.5
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 7Thierry Dusautoir-3.4
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12David Marty+6.7
- 13David Skrela
- 14Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Sebastien Bruno
- 17Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 18Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 19Remy Martin
- 20Pierre Mignoni-1.1
- 21Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 22Vincent Clerc+1.5
Argentina
- 1Rodrigo Roncero
- 2Alberto Vernet Basualdo
- 3Omar Hasan Jalil
- 4Rimas Alvarez Kairelis
- 5Patricio Albacete
- 6Martin Durand
- 7Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
- 8Gonzalo Longo Elia
- 9Agustin Pichot(c)
- 10Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 11Horacio Agulla
- 12Felipe Contepomi-2.0
- 13Manuel Contepomi
- 14Federico Aramburu
- 15Ignacio Corleto
Replacements
- 16Eusebio Guinazu
- 17Marcos Ayerza+10.6
- 18Esteban Lozada
- 19Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 20Nicolas Fernandez Miranda
- 21Federico Todeschini
- 22Hernan Senillosa
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 61.0% | Possession | 39.0% |
| 62.0% | Territory | 38.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 638m | Carry metres | 424m |
| 16 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 20 | Offloads | 6 |
| 136 | Passes | 72 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 55 | Tackles made | 98 |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 95.2% | Lineout success | 83.3% |
| 20 | Lineouts won | 5 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 12 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Rucks won | 43 |
| 11 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 14 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 5 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.