Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 9
19 July 2008Patersons Stadium, Perth (WA)
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 10.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Al Baxter
- 4James Horwill+1.4
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7George Smith
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9Luke Burgess
- 10Matt Giteau+3.8
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 13Stirling Mortlock(c)+4.4
- 14Peter Hynes
- 15Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17Matt Dunning+1.3
- 18Hugh McMeniman
- 19Phil Waugh
- 20Sam Cordingley-3.1
- 21Ryan Cross
- 22Drew Mitchell+1.7
South Africa
- 1Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 2Schalk Brits
- 3CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield(c)-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Francois Steyn+7.8
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Conrad Jantjes
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 18Brian Mujati
- 19Andries Bekker+0.8
- 20Ryan Kankowski
- 21Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 22Peter Grant
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.