Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
39 – 20
23 July 2011Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 11.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4Rob Simmons-1.5
- 5James Horwill+1.4
- 6Rocky Elsom(c)
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Ben McCalman+5.9
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Digby Ioane
- 12Pat McCabe
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14James O'Connor-0.2
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 17Pekahou Cowan
- 18Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 19Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 20Matt Hodgson
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Anthony Fainga'a
South Africa
- 1Dean Greyling
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3Werner Kruger
- 4Flip van der Merwe+0.1
- 5Alistair Hargreaves
- 6Deon Stegmann
- 7Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 8Ashley Johnson
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Lwazi Mvovo
- 12Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 13Juan de Jongh-2.5
- 14Bjorn Basson
- 15Gio Aplon
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 18Ryan Kankowski
- 19Jean Deysel
- 20Charl McLeod
- 21Adrian Jacobs-2.7
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.