Australia v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 6
11 September 2011North Harbour Stadium, Albany · neutral venue
What the model says about Australia v Italy
- Kick-off
- 03:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 29 m
- Temperature
- 12.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 10.3 mm
- Wind
- 42 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 5James Horwill(c)+1.4
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Radike Samo-1.7
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Digby Ioane
- 12Pat McCabe
- 13Anthony Fainga'a
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Rob Simmons-1.5
- 19Ben McCalman+5.9
- 20Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 21Luke Burgess
- 22James O'Connor-0.2
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 5Cornelius van Zyl
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Robert Barbieri-5.8
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Fabio Semenzato
- 10Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 11Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Tommaso d'Apice
- 17Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 18Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 19Paul Derbyshire-1.1
- 20Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 21Riccardo Bocchino
- 22Luke McLean
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 61.0% | Possession | 39.0% |
| 66.0% | Territory | 34.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 533m | Carry metres | 220m |
| 11 | Defenders beaten | 1 |
| 156 | Passes | 70 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 70 | Tackles made | 116 |
| 2 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 10 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 81.8% | Lineout success | 77.8% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 27 | Scrums won | 28 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | Rucks won | 50 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 5 |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | — |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.