Argentina v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 16
25 August 2012Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza
What the model says about Argentina v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 19:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 830 m
- Temperature
- 4.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-32.88968,-68.87990 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Rodrigo Roncero
- 2Eusebio Guinazu
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Manuel Carizza-12.9
- 5Patricio Albacete
- 6Julio Farias Cabello
- 7Alvaro Galindo
- 8Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe(c)
- 9Nicolas Vergallo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Horacio Agulla
- 12Santiago Fernandez
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Gonzalo Camacho
- 15Martin Rodriguez Gurruchage
Replacements
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Andries Bekker+0.8
- 6Marcell Coetzee-4.4
- 7Jacques Potgieter
- 8Willem Alberts+10.1
- 9Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Lwazi Mvovo
- 12Francois Steyn+7.8
- 13Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 14Bryan Habana+1.1
- 15Zane Kirchner
Replacements
- 16Tiaan Liebenberg
- 17Pat Cilliers
- 18Flip van der Merwe+0.1
- 19Keegan Daniel
- 20Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 21Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 22JJ Engelbrecht
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.