Argentina v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 22
24 August 2013Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza
What the model says about Argentina v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 19:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 830 m
- Temperature
- 3.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-32.88968,-68.87990 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Marcos Ayerza+10.6
- 2Eusebio Guinazu
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Julio Farias Cabello
- 5Mariano Galarza+8.5
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 8Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Horacio Agulla
- 12Felipe Contepomi(c)-2.0
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Gonzalo Camacho
- 15Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Nahuel Lobo
- 18Matias Diaz
- 19Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 20Benjamin Macome
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Santiago Fernandez
- 23Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Juandre Kruger
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Willem Alberts+10.1
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 13JJ Engelbrecht
- 14Bjorn Basson
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 18Coenie Oosthuizen
- 19Flip van der Merwe+0.1
- 20Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 21Jano Vermaak
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Jan Serfontein+12.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.