Argentina v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 33
23 August 2014Padre Ernesto Martearena, Salta
What the model says about Argentina v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 19:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 1177 m
- Temperature
- 18.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.4 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Marcos Ayerza+10.6
- 2Agustin Creevy(c)+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Mariano Galarza+8.5
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
- 8Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Manuel Montero
- 12Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Matias Cortese
- 17Bruno Postiglioni
- 18Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 23Horacio Agulla
South Africa
- 1Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 13Damian de Allende-0.1
- 14Cornal Hendricks
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 18Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 19Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 20Marcell Coetzee-4.4
- 21Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 22Morne Steyn-3.6
- 23Lwazi Mvovo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.