South Africa v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
25 – 37
8 August 2015Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban
What the model says about South Africa v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 17.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Vincent Koch-5.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Heinrich Brussow+4.9
- 7Marcell Coetzee-4.4
- 8Schalk Burger+6.0
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 14Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Marcel van der Merwe
- 19Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 20Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 21Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Lwazi Mvovo
Argentina
- 1Marcos Ayerza+10.6
- 2Agustin Creevy(c)+2.4
- 3Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 8Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 11Juan Imhoff+8.0
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Horacio Agulla
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Lucas Noguera Paz
- 18Matias Diaz
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 21Martin Landajo
- 22Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 23Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 4 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.