France v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 10
19 September 2015Allianz Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about France v Italy
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 13.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Eddy Ben Arous
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Pascal Pape+1.7
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Damien Chouly
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Sebastien Tillous-Borde
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Noa Nakaitaci
- 12Alexandre Dumoulin
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Scott Spedding
Replacements
- 16Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 17Vincent Debaty
- 18Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 19Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 20Alexandre Flanquart
- 21Morgan Parra-0.8
- 22Remi Tales
- 23Gaël Fickou+2.9
Italy
- 1Matias Aguero+1.9
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini(c)-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Joshua Furno
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Francesco Minto
- 8Samu Vunisa
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 12Andrea Masi-5.0
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Andrea Manici
- 17Michele Rizzo
- 18Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 19Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 20Simone Favaro+10.6
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Carlo Canna+1.5
- 23Enrico Bacchin
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 46.0% | Possession | 54.0% |
| 43.0% | Territory | 57.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 431m | Carry metres | 298m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 23 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 10 | Offloads | 3 |
| 157 | Passes | 107 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 109 | Tackles made | 120 |
| 88.0% | Tackle success | 84.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 23 |
| 12 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 85.7% | Lineout success | 92.9% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 4 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Rucks won | 70 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 554m | Kick metres | 478m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.