South Africa v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 13
30 October 2015London Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 13.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.2 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Victor Matfield(c)-1.4
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Schalk Burger+6.0
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 19Lood de Jager-4.9
- 20Willem Alberts+10.1
- 21Rudy Paige
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Jan Serfontein+12.9
Argentina
- 1Juan Figallo-4.0
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Javier Ortega Desio
- 7Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
- 8Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Nicolas Sanchez(c)+2.9
- 11Horacio Agulla
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 15Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
Replacements
- 16Lucas Noguera Paz
- 17Juan Pablo Orlandi
- 18Santiago Garcia Botta
- 19Guido Petti-1.9
- 20Facundo Isa+1.6
- 21Martin Landajo
- 22Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 23Juan Pablo Socino
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 35.0% | Possession | 65.0% |
| 37.0% | Territory | 63.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 367m | Carry metres | 560m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 17 | Defenders beaten | 32 |
| 3 | Offloads | 10 |
| 134 | Passes | 245 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 195 | Tackles made | 104 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 86.0% |
| 32 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 17 |
| 14 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 93.8% | Lineout success | 92.9% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 4 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Rucks won | 141 |
| 6 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 44 | Kicks from hand | 32 |
| 640m | Kick metres | 559m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 15 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.