Australia v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
36 – 20
17 September 2016HBF Park, Perth
What the model says about Australia v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 18 m
- Temperature
- 11.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Rob Simmons-1.5
- 5Adam Coleman
- 6Dean Mumm+2.1
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8David Pocock+0.9
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Reece Hodge
- 12Bernard Foley-0.8
- 13Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 14Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Tom Robertson+2.2
- 19Rory Arnold-6.0
- 20Lopeti Timani
- 21Sean McMahon+6.7
- 22Nick Phipps-0.5
- 23Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Javier Ortega Desio
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 8Facundo Isa+1.6
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
- 12Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Lucas Noguera Paz
- 18Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 19Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 20Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 21Martin Landajo
- 22Gabriel Ascarate
- 23Matias Orlando-3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.