Argentina v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 36
1 October 2016Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires
What the model says about Argentina v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 22:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 25 m
- Temperature
- 14.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Javier Ortega Desio
- 8Facundo Isa+1.6
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Ramiro Moyano
- 12Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Lucas Noguera Paz
- 18Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 19Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 20Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 23Matias Orlando-3.8
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 5Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 6Liam Squire
- 7Ardie Savea-6.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 13Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 14Israel Dagg-2.1
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 19Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 20Elliot Dixon
- 21Tawera Kerr-Barlow+2.6
- 22Lima Sopoaga
- 23Damian McKenzie+0.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 5 |
| 2 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.