Italy v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 40
11 March 2017Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v France
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 10.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 4Marco Fuser
- 5Dries van Schalkwyk
- 6Braam Steyn+4.4
- 7Simone Favaro+10.6
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Carlo Canna+1.5
- 11Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 12Luke McLean
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Angelo Esposito
- 15Edoardo Padovani+0.5
Replacements
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Julien Ledevedec
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Fabien Sanconnie
- 7Kevin Gourdon
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 10Camille Lopez+2.7
- 11Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Remi Lamerat
- 14Noa Nakaitaci
- 15Brice Dulin-3.5
Replacements
- 16Christopher Tolofua
- 17Uini Atonio+0.4
- 18Eddy Ben Arous
- 19Paul Jedrasiak
- 20Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 21Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 22Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 23Yoann Huget+2.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.