New Zealand v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
39 – 22
9 September 2017Stadium Taranaki, New Plymouth
What the model says about New Zealand v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 44 m
- Temperature
- 7.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 19.3 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Luke Romano+1.2
- 5Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 6Vaea Fifita
- 7Ardie Savea-6.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Nehe Milner-Skudder
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 14Israel Dagg-2.1
- 15Damian McKenzie+0.5
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 19Scott Barrett+2.6
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21Tawera Kerr-Barlow+2.6
- 22Lima Sopoaga
- 23Ngani Laumape
Argentina
- 1Lucas Noguera Paz
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Javier Ortega Desio
- 8Benjamin Macome
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Emiliano Boffelli
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Santiago Garcia Botta
- 18Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 19Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 20Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 21Martin Landajo
- 22Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 23Matias Orlando-3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.