Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 23
9 September 2017HBF Park, Perth
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 18 m
- Temperature
- 16.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.3 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Rory Arnold-6.0
- 5Adam Coleman
- 6Ned Hanigan
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Sean McMahon+6.7
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Reece Hodge
- 12Kurtley Beale+3.5
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Henry Speight
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Jordan Uelese
- 17Tom Robertson+2.2
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Rob Simmons-1.5
- 20Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 23Curtis Rona
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Coenie Oosthuizen
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Jaco Kriel
- 8Uzair Cassiem
- 9Ross Cronje
- 10Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 11Courtnall Skosan
- 12Jan Serfontein+12.9
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Raymond Rhule
- 15Andries Coetzee
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 19Lood de Jager-4.9
- 20Jean-Luc du Preez
- 21Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 22Handré Pollard-4.0
- 23Damian de Allende-0.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.