Australia v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
45 – 20
16 September 2017GIO Stadium, Canberra
What the model says about Australia v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 617 m
- Temperature
- 5.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.6 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Rob Simmons-1.5
- 5Adam Coleman
- 6Ned Hanigan
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Sean McMahon+6.7
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Reece Hodge
- 12Kurtley Beale+3.5
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Henry Speight
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Jordan Uelese
- 17Tom Robertson+2.2
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Izack Rodda
- 20Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 23Marika Koroibete
Argentina
- 1Lucas Noguera Paz
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Javier Ortega Desio
- 8Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Ramiro Moyano
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Matías Moroni-12.4
- 15Emiliano Boffelli
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Santiago Garcia Botta
- 18Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 19Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 20Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 23Manuel Montero
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 6 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.