South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 27
30 September 2017Toyota Stadium, Bloemfontein
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 1382 m
- Temperature
- 18.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.4 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Ruan Dreyer
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Francois Louw+9.7
- 8Uzair Cassiem
- 9Ross Cronje
- 10Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 11Courtnall Skosan
- 12Jan Serfontein+12.9
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Dillyn Leyds
- 15Andries Coetzee
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 19Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 20Jean-Luc du Preez
- 21Rudy Paige
- 22Handré Pollard-4.0
- 23Damian de Allende-0.1
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Izack Rodda
- 5Adam Coleman
- 6Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Sean McMahon+6.7
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Reece Hodge
- 12Kurtley Beale+3.5
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Marika Koroibete
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Stephen Moore+5.5
- 17Tom Robertson+2.2
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Rob Simmons-1.5
- 20Ned Hanigan
- 21Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 22Nick Phipps-0.5
- 23Samu Kerevi+5.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.