Argentina v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 37
7 October 2017Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza
What the model says about Argentina v Australia
- Kick-off
- 22:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 830 m
- Temperature
- 18.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-32.88968,-68.87990 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Lucas Noguera Paz
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 4Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Javier Ortega Desio
- 8Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Emiliano Boffelli
- 12Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Matías Moroni-12.4
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Santiago Garcia Botta
- 18Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 19Benjamin Macome
- 20Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 21Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 22Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 23Santiago Cordero-1.8
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Izack Rodda
- 5Adam Coleman
- 6Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Sean McMahon+6.7
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Reece Hodge
- 12Kurtley Beale+3.5
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Marika Koroibete
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Stephen Moore+5.5
- 17Tetera Faulkner
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Rob Simmons-1.5
- 20Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 23Henry Speight
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 5 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.