Wales v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 7
3 February 2018Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 4.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.8 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Cory Hill+7.7
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 7Josh Navidi+6.8
- 8Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Rhys Patchell
- 11Steffan Evans
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Scott Williams+3.8
- 14Josh Adams+7.4
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Wyn Jones+0.5
- 18Tomas Francis+10.5
- 19Bradley Davies+0.8
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Aled Davies
- 22Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 23Owen Watkin-4.4
Scotland
- 1Gordon Reid+0.3
- 2Stuart McInally-3.8
- 3Jon Welsh
- 4Ben Toolis
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Cornell du Preez
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Byron McGuigan
- 12Huw Jones-6.4
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18Murray McCallum
- 19Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 20Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 21Greig Laidlaw
- 22Peter Horne+2.1
- 23Sean Maitland+4.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.