Scotland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 26
11 February 2018Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 0.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.1 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Gordon Reid+0.3
- 2Stuart McInally-3.8
- 3Simon Berghan-0.6
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Sean Maitland+4.2
- 12Peter Horne+2.1
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18Jon Welsh
- 19Ben Toolis
- 20David Denton-0.1
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Chris Harris+7.0
- 23Blair Kinghorn-12.3
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Arthur Iturria
- 5Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Yacouba Camara
- 8Marco Tauleigne
- 9Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 10Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 11Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 12Geoffrey Doumayrou
- 13Remi Lamerat
- 14Teddy Thomas
- 15Geoffrey Palis
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.