Italy v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 29
17 March 2018Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 12:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 10.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.4 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 5Dean Budd
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Jake Polledri
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Marcello Violi
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 12Tommaso Castello
- 13Giulio Bisegni
- 14Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 15Matteo Minozzi
Replacements
- 16Oliviero Fabiani
- 17Nicola Quaglio
- 18Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 19Braam Steyn+4.4
- 20Giovanni Licata
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Carlo Canna+1.5
- 23Jayden Hayward
Scotland
- 1Gordon Reid+0.3
- 2Fraser Brown-1.1
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Tim Swinson
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Sean Maitland+4.2
- 12Nick Grigg
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Stuart McInally-3.8
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 19Richie Gray-0.1
- 20David Denton-0.1
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Peter Horne+2.1
- 23Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 3 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.