New Zealand v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
46 – 24
8 September 2018Trafalgar Park, Nelson
What the model says about New Zealand v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 4 m
- Temperature
- 7.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Karl Tu'inukuafe
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Ardie Savea-6.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Waisake Naholo
- 12Ngani Laumape
- 13Jack Goodhue
- 14Nehe Milner-Skudder
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Nathan Harris
- 17Tim Perry
- 18Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 19Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 20Luke Whitelock
- 21Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi
- 22Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 23Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
Argentina
- 1Santiago Garcia Botta
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Javier Ortega Desio
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Ramiro Moyano
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Emiliano Boffelli
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Juan Pablo Zeiss
- 18Gaston Cortes
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Pablo Matera-1.1
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Bautista Ezcurra
- 23Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 5 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.