Australia v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 23
15 September 2018Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
What the model says about Australia v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 12 m
- Temperature
- 19.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Rory Arnold-6.0
- 5Izack Rodda
- 6Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Pete Samu-4.3
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Kurtley Beale+3.5
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Matt To'omua-5.6
- 13Reece Hodge
- 14Israel Folau
- 15Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
Replacements
- 16Folau Fainga'a
- 17Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Adam Coleman
- 20Ned Hanigan
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Bernard Foley-0.8
- 23Jack Maddocks
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Santiago Medrano
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Javier Ortega Desio
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Ramiro Moyano
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Emiliano Boffelli
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.