France v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 24
1 February 2019Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Wales
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 4.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.8 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 40 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Arthur Iturria
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Camille Lopez+2.7
- 11Yoann Huget+2.1
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Julien Marchand+1.9
- 17Dany Priso
- 18Demba Bamba-4.4
- 19Felix Lambey
- 20Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 21Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 22Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 23Geoffrey Doumayrou
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Adam Beard+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Josh Navidi+6.8
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Wyn Jones+0.5
- 18Samson Lee
- 19Cory Hill+7.7
- 20Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Dan Biggar+0.4
- 23Owen Watkin-4.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.