Scotland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 20
2 February 2019Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- -0.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Dell-3.1
- 2Stuart McInally-3.8
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Ben Toolis
- 5Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 6Sam Skinner-0.5
- 7Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 8Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Jake Kerr
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Gary Graham
- 20Josh Strauss+6.2
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Adam Hastings+8.7
- 23Chris Harris+7.0
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4David Sisi+1.5
- 5Dean Budd
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Braam Steyn+4.4
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 12Tommaso Castello
- 13Luca Morisi+0.0
- 14Angelo Esposito
- 15Jayden Hayward
Replacements
- 16Luca Bigi
- 17Cherif Traore
- 18Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 19Jimmy Tuivaiti
- 20Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 21Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 22Ian McKinley
- 23Edoardo Padovani+0.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 3 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.