Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
11 – 18
9 March 2019Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 3.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.6 mm
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Dell-3.1
- 2Stuart McInally-3.8
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 7Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 8Josh Strauss+6.2
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Darcy Graham-3.0
- 12Peter Horne+2.1
- 13Nick Grigg
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Gordon Reid+0.3
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Ben Toolis
- 20Hamish Watson-1.1
- 21Greig Laidlaw
- 22Adam Hastings+8.7
- 23Byron McGuigan
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Adam Beard+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Josh Navidi+6.8
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Jake Ball+1.0
- 20Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 21Aled Davies
- 22Dan Biggar+0.4
- 23Owen Watkin-4.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.