Italy v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
14 – 25
16 March 2019Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v France
- Kick-off
- 12:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 12.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 4David Sisi+1.5
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Braam Steyn+4.4
- 7Jake Polledri
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Tito Tebaldi
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Angelo Esposito
- 12Luca Morisi+0.0
- 13Marco Zanon
- 14Edoardo Padovani+0.5
- 15Jayden Hayward
Replacements
- 16Luca Bigi
- 17Cherif Traore
- 18Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 19Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 20Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Ian McKinley
- 23Luca Sperandio
France
- 1Etienne Falgoux
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Demba Bamba-4.4
- 4Felix Lambey
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 7Yacouba Camara
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Yoann Huget+2.1
- 12Geoffrey Doumayrou
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Camille Chat-3.8
- 17Dany Priso
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Paul Gabrillagues
- 20Arthur Iturria
- 21Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 22Camille Lopez+2.7
- 23Thomas Ramos+6.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.