England v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
38 – 38
16 March 2019Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 10.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.5 mm
- Wind
- 48 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ben Moon
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Mark Wilson
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Jack Nowell+4.7
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Brad Shields
- 20Nathan Hughes
- 21Ben Spencer-1.4
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Ben Te'o
Scotland
- 1Allan Dell-3.1
- 2Stuart McInally-3.8
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Ben Toolis
- 5Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 6Sam Skinner-0.5
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Byron McGuigan
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Nick Grigg
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Sean Maitland+4.2
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Gordon Reid+0.3
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Jonny Gray-7.0
- 20Josh Strauss+6.2
- 21Greig Laidlaw
- 22Adam Hastings+8.7
- 23Chris Harris+7.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 6 |
| 5 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.