South Africa v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
49 – 3
4 October 2019Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Italy
- Kick-off
- 09:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 60 m
- Temperature
- 22.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Franco Mostert-1.0
- 21Francois Louw+9.7
- 22Herschel Jantjies+3.4
- 23Francois Steyn+7.8
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Luca Bigi
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4David Sisi+1.5
- 5Dean Budd
- 6Braam Steyn+4.4
- 7Jake Polledri
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Tito Tebaldi
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 12Jayden Hayward
- 13Luca Morisi+0.0
- 14Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 15Matteo Minozzi
Replacements
- 16Federico Zani
- 17Nicola Quaglio
- 18Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 19Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 20Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 21Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 22Callum Braley
- 23Carlo Canna+1.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 57.0% | Territory | 43.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 568m | Carry metres | 257m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 8 |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 17 |
| 10 | Offloads | 15 |
| 137 | Passes | 134 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 112 | Tackles made | 129 |
| 87.0% | Tackle success | 87.0% |
| 17 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 87.5% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 6 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 79 | Rucks won | 66 |
| 10 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 827m | Kick metres | 723m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 4 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | — |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.