England v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
39 – 10
5 October 2019Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo · neutral venue
What the model says about England v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 08:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 66 m
- Temperature
- 23.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 13.2 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Tom Curry+0.8
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 20Lewis Ludlam+8.2
- 21Willi Heinz
- 22Henry Slade0.0
- 23Jack Nowell+4.7
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera(c)-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Javier Ortega Desio
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Benjamin Urdapilleta
- 11Santiago Carreras
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Matías Moroni-12.4
- 15Emiliano Boffelli
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Santiago Medrano
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 21Felipe Ezcurra
- 22Lucas Mensa
- 23Bautista Delguy+4.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 67.0% | Territory | 33.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 433m | Carry metres | 256m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 28 | Defenders beaten | 17 |
| 8 | Offloads | 5 |
| 175 | Passes | 115 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 108 | Tackles made | 162 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 85.0% |
| 17 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 28 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 84.6% | Lineout success | 85.7% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 1 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 99 | Rucks won | 75 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Kicks from hand | 34 |
| 1028m | Kick metres | 1073m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 13 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.