Wales v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 19
20 October 2019Showa Denko Dome Oita, Oita · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v France
- Kick-off
- 07:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 146 m
- Temperature
- 19.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 41 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Josh Navidi+6.8
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Owen Watkin-4.4
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Rhys Carré-1.2
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Adam Beard+1.0
- 20Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 21Tomos Williams+0.8
- 22Rhys Patchell
- 23Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado(c)+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 5Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Yoann Huget+2.1
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Camille Chat-3.8
- 17Cyril Baille+5.5
- 18Emerick Setiano
- 19Paul Gabrillagues
- 20Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 21Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 22Camille Lopez+2.7
- 23Vincent Rattez
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | Possession | 52.0% |
| 44.0% | Territory | 56.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 333m | Carry metres | 498m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 16 |
| 17 | Defenders beaten | 26 |
| 3 | Offloads | 11 |
| 113 | Passes | 119 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 152 | Tackles made | 107 |
| 85.0% | Tackle success | 86.0% |
| 26 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 17 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 4 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Rucks won | 90 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Kicks from hand | 36 |
| 1182m | Kick metres | 1163m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.