Wales v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 19
27 October 2019International Stadium Yokohama, Yokohama · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 09:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 15 m
- Temperature
- 17.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.7 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
35.50999,139.60638 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 42 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones(c)-0.4
- 6Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Rhys Carré-1.2
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Adam Beard+1.0
- 20Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 21Tomos Williams+0.8
- 22Rhys Patchell
- 23Owen Watkin-4.4
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Sbu Nkosi
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Franco Mostert-1.0
- 21Francois Louw+9.7
- 22Herschel Jantjies+3.4
- 23Francois Steyn+7.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 61.0% | Possession | 39.0% |
| 62.0% | Territory | 38.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 182m | Carry metres | 296m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 11 | Defenders beaten | 16 |
| 2 | Offloads | 2 |
| 115 | Passes | 67 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 74 | Tackles made | 147 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 93.0% |
| 16 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 93.3% | Lineout success | 83.3% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 5 |
| 4 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 97 | Rucks won | 55 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Kicks from hand | 37 |
| 931m | Kick metres | 872m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.