France v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 22
9 February 2020Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 9.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.3 mm
- Wind
- 47 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Mohamed Haouas
- 4Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Vincent Rattez
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Arthur Vincent
- 14Teddy Thomas
- 15Anthony Bouthier
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 18Demba Bamba-4.4
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Boris Palu
- 21Cameron Woki-3.5
- 22Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 23Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Luca Bigi
- 3Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 4Dean Budd
- 5Niccolò Cannone
- 6Jake Polledri
- 7Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 8Braam Steyn+4.4
- 9Callum Braley
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Matteo Minozzi
- 12Carlo Canna+1.5
- 13Luca Morisi+0.0
- 14Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 15Jayden Hayward
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.