Italy v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
0 – 17
22 February 2020Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 9.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Luca Bigi
- 3Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 4Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 5Niccolò Cannone
- 6Jake Polledri
- 7Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 8Braam Steyn+4.4
- 9Callum Braley
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Matteo Minozzi
- 12Carlo Canna+1.5
- 13Luca Morisi+0.0
- 14Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 15Jayden Hayward
Replacements
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2Stuart McInally-3.8
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Ben Toolis
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Adam Hastings+8.7
- 11Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Allan Dell-3.1
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 20Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Rory Hutchinson
- 23Byron McGuigan
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 3 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.