Scotland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 17
8 March 2020Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 6.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.8 mm
- Wind
- 37 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2Fraser Brown-1.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Scott Cummings+2.0
- 5Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Nick Haining
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Adam Hastings+8.7
- 11Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Stuart McInally-3.8
- 17Allan Dell-3.1
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Sam Skinner-0.5
- 20Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Duncan Weir-1.7
- 23Kyle Steyn+2.9
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Mohamed Haouas
- 4Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 12Arthur Vincent
- 13Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Anthony Bouthier
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 18Demba Bamba-4.4
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Dylan Cretin
- 21Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 22Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 23Thomas Ramos+6.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.