Wales v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 14
31 October 2020Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli
What the model says about Wales v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 12.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 12.9 mm
- Wind
- 43 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Rhys Carré-1.2
- 2Ryan Elias+3.4
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Alun Wyn Jones(c)-0.4
- 6Shane Lewis-Hughes
- 7James Davies
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Owen Watkin-4.4
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Liam Williams+7.7
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Sam Parry
- 17Wyn Jones+0.5
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Cory Hill+7.7
- 20Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22Rhys Patchell
- 23Nick Tompkins-1.1
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2Fraser Brown-1.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Scott Cummings+2.0
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Blade Thomson
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 12James Lang
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Stuart Hogg(c)
Replacements
- 16Stuart McInally-3.8
- 17Oli Kebble
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Ben Toolis
- 20Cornell du Preez
- 21Scott Steele
- 22Adam Hastings+8.7
- 23Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.